USC -3 -125 4% PLAY - Buy 1/2
We are getting a ton of value here with USC. USC definitely an overrated team this year and expected to take a step back, but I think they looked good in the first half on the road against Texas before they had too many mistakes. Coming back home facing a Washington State team that they have revenge against should help. Clay Helton is 1-10 ATS as a dog at USC, and we are not in that role here on Friday night against a Washington State team that has not played a team with any sort of offense having faced an FCS foe, San Jose (130th YPP), and Wyoming (104th YPP). USC meanwhile has played 27th, 32nd, and 66th ranked foes.
USC following a loss of 14+ points are 17-9 ATS in their next game as a favorite since 1985 and they are 11-5 ATS as a home favorite of 3-6.5 points after just a loss since 1985, and they are 10-2 ATS if they lost as a dog in their last game and are now a home favorite of 3-6.5. Point is USC does not find themselves in the situation as a home favorite by a TD or less very often. Especially following a loss meaning we are getting excellent value on this team right now. USC averaged nearly 6 yards per carry on the road in this match-up last year, and I think they will lean on the run at home and not put too much pressure on JT Daniels to win the game with his arm, but they'll let him take some shots to get up big early.
